February’s CPI Exceeds Expectations: Impact on Markets and Fed Policy

In February, the inflation data slightly exceeded expectations, signaling a persistent challenge in the economic landscape. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.2% year-over-year, a tick above the forecasted and previous month’s figures, with core inflation—excluding the volatile food and energy sectors—also surpassing predictions at 3.8%. Despite this uptick, the market’s reaction was notably optimistic, as evidenced by a rally in the S&P 500, particularly among technology stocks. However, the Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast also shows a continued uptrend in inflation expectations for March 2024. This signals that the market may need to brace for a persistent rise in prices.

US Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast CPI

Here’s what this could mean for the market:

 

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